ASHU DUTT (www.ashudutt.com): November 2010

Friday, November 26, 2010

THE BREACHING OF TECHNICAL SUPPORTS - www.ashudutt.com

THE BIGGER ISSUES IS THAT MOST STOCKS HAVE BREACHED EVERY POSSIBLE SUPPORT..IF YOU FALL OFF THE MOUNTAIN, YOU CAN CLIMB BACK BUT IT TAKES EFFORT...and so most stocks will need a lot of effort

Punj Lloyd..its breached the only support in 1 year..the next support is at 75

Jaiprakash associates...it bas breached its last support. So who know where it makes a base now

REAL ESTATE STOCKS - www.ashudutt.com

REAL ESTATE STOCKS - A REACTION NOT IN PROPORTION - The fall in real estate stocks may have created several value buying opportunities. The speed of the fall indicates "forced" selling (for example a promoter may have pledged shares and since he can't pay up may see his stock drop like nine pins as the creditor sells the stock at any price). Usually, these things stop at some point as the creditor and the promoter come to some agreement. While these are not trading stocks, any holding period of 12 months or more should produce a decent value pick here
In this selling spree, one has overlooked the fact that real estate companies are already treated like step children by banks and there is hardly any lending. And in the next 3-4 years, as the Industry matures, the potential for REITs and other derivative instruments in Real estate remains intact
Note: There may be some more fall though I cannot see more than 10-15% more from here
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ASHU DUTT BOOKS - http://www.ashudutt.com/books.aspx

ASHU DUTT BOOKS - You may find these books invaluable - Ashu Dutt's 22 Trading Secrets, Ashu Dutt's 15 Easy ways to read charts, Ashu Dutt's Multibaggers etc . You can order them (or review their content) at http://www.ashudutt.com/books.aspx

NIFTY CALL FOR NOVEMBER 28, 2010 - www.ashudutt.com

NIFTY CALL FOR MONDAY, NOVEMBER 29,2010 - Nifty is on its way to 5400. Nifty is under severe pressure. The fall in the Nifty so far has come without any real FII selling. Infact, FIIs did not even have a chance to react in the past 2 day. The question is with a falling dollar and a falling Nifty, will they sell the very stocks they stocked up on. The Absolute funds and ETFs will (and they are the predominant foreign investors right now)

So what can you expect next:
a) Selling in index stocks. Banks look specially vulnerable on the charts and could crack very sharply
b) The shorts may smell the opportunity to take the markets down faster
c) Retail traders have such significant losses that brokers on monday may sell perfectly good stocks in their portfolios
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Thursday, November 25, 2010

ASHU DUTT'S 22 TRADING SECRETS - http://www.ashudutt.com/books.aspx

TRADING SECRET # 5 (http://www.ashudutt.com/books.aspx)

A Tape Reader must close a trade: 1) when the tape tells him to close; 2) when his stop is caught; 3) when his position is not clear; 4) when he has a large or satisfactory profit and wishes to utilize those funds for better opportunities.

ASHU DUTT'S 22 TRADING SECRETS

- Richard Wyckoff

PSU BANKS - www.ashudutt.com

PSU BANKS - CHARTS PATTERNS IN BANKS LIKE CENTRAL BANK, SBI AND BANK OF INDIA ARE VERY WEAK. SBI MAY HEAD TO 2500 IF IT DOES NOT HOLD 2800 (AND MAYBE EVEN TO 2300). CENTRLA BANK OF INDIA MAY BE HEADED TO 190-200 (AND THEN FURTHER DOWN)

NIFTY CALL FOR NOVEMBER 26, 2010

NIFTY CALL FOR NOVEMBER 26, 2010 - MORE PRESSURE IN THE PIPE. 5400 is the level to keep in mind
Markets are turning irrational. But the point is, is it over? No not yet. The foreign news is carrying very negative reports. If that spooks foreigners, buying could accelerate

The risk is to bank stocks. If foreigners sell, they may find it difficult to find bottom.

Real Estate is over done but the panic is so great that no one wants to touch it with a barge pole. That takes a long time to sort out. More losses to go in real estate stocks

NIFTY CALL FOR NOVEMBER 26, 2010

BHARAT FORGE - www.ashudutt.com

BHARAT FORGE - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE

Bharat Forge has strong long term charts. But a stop loss is required at 350. If it breaches it, then it is not a trading play. Hold if you have it

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BHARAT FORGE - www.ashudutt.com

FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGIES - www.ashudutt.com

FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGIES - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
Financial Technologies is not a trading stock. Since it has no supports, it could head anywhere on the downside. Nothing can be said about its uptrend unless it crosses 1000 . Avoid. Let it go if you bought it for a short term trade

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POWERGRID - www.ashudutt.com

POWERGRID - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: NONE, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
Powergrid has lost its momentum. Nothing can be said of an uptrend till it crosses 100. Avoid. This is not a trading stock unless it crosses 100
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POWERGRID - www.ashudutt.com

HDIL - www.ashudutt.com

HDIL - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
HDIL has very weak charts. I would not buy futures/options or any other type of security for trading till the time HDIL can cross 200. Without crossing 200, there is no trading momentum in this stock. Avoid
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HDIL - www.ashudutt.com

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

NIFTY CALL FOR NOVEMBER 25, 2010 - www.ashudutt.com

NIFTY CALL FOR NOVEMBER 25, 2010 - A bounce back in the Nifty looks very likely. The market is being spooked by all kinds of "noise" like Korea and Ireland and is not looking at economic data like the US GDP numbers (came in strong) or the German Business index which is the highest since German Unification. Once the market starts to focus on real improvements in economies and gets away from this noice, we may get a sustained run up to 6300

Monday, November 22, 2010

INDUSIND BANK - www.ashudutt.com

INDUSIND BANK - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: SRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
IndusInd Bank has strong short term and long term charts. It has no risk of collapse till it reaches 260. If it does breach 260, it could go to 220. So trading with a stop loss of 260 makes sense. Hold if you have it
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UCO BANK - www.ashudutt.com

UCO BANK - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
UCO Bank is strong both for the short term and long term unless it breaks 140. Once it breaks 140, it will fall to 120 in the short term. I dont suggest trading in this stock unless it stays above 150 for 7-10 trading days. If you have it, hold it with a stop loss of 140

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MANNAPURAM GENERAL FINANCE - www.ashudutt.com

MANNAPURAM GENERAL FINANCE - SHORT TERM:STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS:STRONG
Strong short and long term charts for trading. The support is way down at 140. However, if the stock goes below 170, it will head to 140. So a stop loss at around 170 is required. Hold if you have it
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NIFTY CALL FOR NOVEMBER 23, 2010 - www.ashudutt.com

NIFTY CALL FOR NOVEMBER 23, 2010 - As I have been saying, the Nifty is now in the 5400-6000 range. It is at a real risk of heading to 5400. As of today, expect the markets to fall very sharply. You see the Emerging Markets ETF honeymoon is over. Those who were putting in billions of dollars in Emerging Market ETFs are withdrawing money and with little local interest in stocks, large waves of selling to pay for redemptions will take the Nifty sharply lower
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Sunday, November 21, 2010

REGISTER FOR ASHU DUTT INVESTOR CAMPS AT http://www.ashudutt.com/investorcamps.aspx

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HAVELLS - www.ashudutt.com

HAVELLS - ASHU'S CALL: HOLD, CURRENT PRICE: 366, TARGET PRICE: 420, HOLDING PERIOD: 12 MONTHS
This is not a trading stock and may fall another 10% from current levels. But as long term hold both the fundamentals and the low floating stock (promoters over 60% and institutions 20%) is good
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EXIDE - www.ashudutt.com

EXIDE - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
Exide has a very strong long term chart that got interrupted by this market's fall. The support is at 152. If it cannot stop there, then it may fall significantly. I don't expect that to happen. Ok to hold
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT SERVICES - http://www.ashudutt.com/prtflomngmtservices.aspx

TRIVENI ENGINEERING - www.ashudutt.com

TRIVENI ENGINEERING - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
Triveni engineering is heading to 95 (and even 90). This is a very weak stock with no interest. Weak in the short term. Weak in the long term. Avoid. Its best to get out if you have it for a short term trade
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Saturday, November 20, 2010

PARSVANATH - www.ashudutt.com

ASHU'S VALUE PICK
PARSVANATH - ASHU'S CALL: BUY, CURRENT PRICE: 61, TARGET PRICE: 80, HOLDING PERIOD: 1 YEAR
PORTOFLIO MANAGEMENT SERVICES - http://www.ashudutt.com/prtflomngmtservices.aspx

OBEROI REALTY - www.ashudutt.com

ASHU'S VALUE PICKS
OBEROI REALTY - ASHU'S CALL: BUY, CURRENT PRICE: 260, TARGET PRICE: 350, HOLDING PERIOD: 1 YEAR
PORTOFLIO MANAGEMENT SERVICES - http://www.ashudutt.com/prtflomngmtservices.aspx

EDELWEISS - www.ashudutt.com

EDELWEISS - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: WEAK
Edelweiss is heading to 52 and then to 48. It is collapsing on 30 times average 3 month volumes indicating very strong selling from big sellers. Avoid

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UNITECH - www.ashudutt.com

ASHU'S VALUE PICK
UNITECH, ASHU'S CALL - BUY, CURRENT PRICE: 68, TARGET PRICE: 90, HOLDING PERIOD: 6 MONTHS

Unitech does not deserve this kind of a thrashing. It will rebound back to its 90 levels once the dust settles

PORTOFLIO MANAGEMENT SERVICES - http://www.ashudutt.com/prtflomngmtservices.aspx

GULSHAN POLYOLS - www.ashudutt.com

VALUE PICKS
GULSHAN POLYOLS, ASHU'S CALL - BUY, CURRENT PRICE: 100, TARGET PRICE: 150, HOLDING PERIOD: 1 YEAR
This is a time to pick value stocks (only if you can hold for a year). This seems like a good value pick. Already very low PE, expanding capacity significantly in this year, good cash flows, blue chip clients and FMCG intermediate product
PORTOFLIO MANAGEMENT SERVICES - http://www.ashudutt.com/prtflomngmtservices.aspx

VENKYS - www.ashudutt.com

VENKYS - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
Venkys has lost its momentum. It is headed to 620. Avoid
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ASHU DUTT INVESTOR CAMPS - http://www.ashudutt.com/investorcamps.aspx

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PSU BANKS IN THE SHORT TERM - www.ashudutt.com

PSU BANKS FOR THE SHORT TERM - If you bought PSU Banks in the past 10-15 days, let them go. The immediate term is weak. There may be more losses. PSU Banks are NOT a Day Trade. Avoid

If you bought PSU banks 3-4 months ago, you have significant profits. The supports of such banks are so far away that the charts will not show a change of short term trend as of now. Having said that, if the Index is going to 5400 which I believe is likely if ETF flows stop, the short term trend for PSU Banks is at significant risk. Avoid. If you have them as long term holds, it is fine

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NIFTY CALL FOR THE SHORT TERM - www.ashudutt.com

NIFTY CALL FOR THE SHORT TERM - The Nifty has every chance of heading back to 5400. If the reasons matter to you, please see below
The biggest sustainer of this rally was "liquidity" i.e. too much money chasing too few assets. It was being driven by ETFs (or emerging market ETFs). Emerging market ETFs are down with every heavy losses (some have lost over 10% in just a week). That will slow flows into ETFs to a trickle or even reverse the flow. If it reverses the flow, the Nifty could crack significantly. For markets to sustain, someone has to put up the money. But there is no retail interest either. So who will put up the money
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Thursday, November 18, 2010

JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES - www.ashudutt.com

JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATIONS - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
Jaiprakash Associates is a very weak stock. It is headed to 110 and if it does not hold there, it could simply collapse. Avoid. Its not even worth a hold
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RELIANCE CAPITAL - www.ashudutt.com

RELIANCE CAPITAL - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS:STRONG

Reliance capital is heading to 630. The short term is weak and the long term is weak. The stock has no support till 630. In any case, the stock moves in spurts. Avoid
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Wednesday, November 17, 2010

TRADING INVESTOR CAMP - www.ashudutt.com

Taking F&O positions and Trading positions on Technicals may require an advanced degree of understanding on how the Charts/F&O work. I suggest a 2 day Investor Camp will help you enhance your Trading skills
If you wish to attend an Ashu Dutt Technical or F&O Investor Camp, please send in a request at ashu@ashudutt.com for dates of such camps in your city

HINDALCO - www.ashudutt.com

HINDALCO - SHORT TERM: WEAK,LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
Hindalco is headed to 160 levels. There is almost no support till that level. Only if it breaks 230 on the upside and stays there for 10-15 trading sessions with heavy volumes does it have any hope. Avoid
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HINDALCO - www.ashudutt.com

BHUSHAN STEEL - www.ashudutt.com

BHUSHAN STEEL - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: WEAK
Bhushan steel is headed to 420 in the short term and if does not hold there, it may even test 300. Both the short and long term charts are weak. Avoid
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PSU BANKS - www.ashudutt.com

PSU BANKS - No the trend has not reversed. Either short term or long term. Yes there has been a fall but if you keep it in perspective, both the short term and long term are strong. Floating stock is low. But if you are day trading and your holding period is 5-7 days, these stocks are not day trades
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PSU BANKS - www.ashudutt.com

NIFTY CALL FOR OCTOBER 18, 2010 - www.ashudutt.com

NIFTY CALL FOR OCTOBER 18, 2010 - We may get a technical bounce. Its due. But the question remains if that takes the markets out of its downtrend. Thats because the Nifty has broken through 6000, a very critical support and closed there. Now if it stays at 6000 for a couple of day (perhaps after an uptick tomorrow), the range is 5400-6000
So if you are trading, wait for a confirmed uptick above 6000 i.e. a 6000 plus level that holds for 7-10 days (even if you have to buy above 6100). Because unless it holds 6000 or above, things have turned for the worse. Its not just our markets but all emerging markets that are huring big time. China has given up 11% in just 3-4 trading session
If you are buying value, then its best not to see the index but specific stocks.
A value pick remains a value pick. For example, GMR Infra, Indiabulls Real Estate etc
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Tuesday, November 16, 2010

NIFTY CALL FOR OCTOBER 16, 2010 - www.ashudutt.com

NIFTY CALL - OCTOBER 16,2010 - If we stay below 6000 on the Nifty for 10-15 trading days, the range would become 5400-6000. But I would wait and watch for a day or two if this holds below 6,000. If it jumps back, then the range is 6000-6200
This entire rally was sustained by EFF buying. If that reverses (which it seems like its going to happen) because ETFs have about a 7-8% loss in just week, the same factors that took the market up will bring it down. If this fall continues, I am afraid, there is much more to come
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Monday, November 15, 2010

JINDAL POLY - www.ashudutt.com

JINDAL POLY - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: NONE, PREVIALING BIAS: STRONG
These stocks make a move for a few day (usually a strong move). And since their volumes are pathetic usually, even a 100,000 shares trades can get them moving. But the risk is too high and you will usually find yourself on the wrong side of the trade. Avoid
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SESA GOA - www.ashudutt.com

SESA GOA - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM:WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
Sesa Goa is headed to 320 and then to 300 (and maybe lower). It has lost both price and volume momentum. Both short term and long term trends are weak. It will find it very difficult to breach through resistances of 370 and 400. Avoid. Let it go if you are sitting with it
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ALOK TEXTILES - www.ashudutt.com

ALOK TEXTILES - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
This stock is in a steep downtrend. It may end up at 20 (maybe even 18). What more worrying is that volumes are drying up showing lack of interest. The long term trend though remains up and if the stock can cross 35 with strong volumes and stay there for 5-10 trading sessions, the trend will be up
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Sunday, November 14, 2010

BIOCON - www.ashudutt.com

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SAIL - www.ashudutt.com

SAIL - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
SAIL is losing both price and momentum. It is headed to 180. And if it does not hold at that level, the charts are very weak. Any trend on the upside seems unlikely
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INDRAPRASTHA GAS - www.ashudutt.com

INDRAPRASTHA GAS - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
If you plan to trade this stock, then its best to buy on strength. It does not have strength either in price or in volume. So I would avoid as a trade. If it breaks 300, it could be headed to 250
I do like it as a Value Pick, it may be a different matter
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CENTRAL BANK - www.ashudutt.com

CENTRAL BANK - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG

Central bank is a "buy on dips" kind of stock (for trading purposes). Unless it hits 200, there is no change in its short and long term trend. Hold if you have it

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WELSPUN INDIA - www.ashudutt.com

WELSPUN INDIA - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: OPEN, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
If Welspun falls below 70 which it is likely to do, it will go all the way to 60. For it to have any uptrend, it must cross 80, stay there for 15-20 trading days and have volumes of 10-20 times average (seems unlikely). Avoid
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EDUCOMP - www.ashudutt.com

EDUCOMP - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM:WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS

Very weak. Very weak in the short term. Very weak long term. This stock has one more support left 450. Whats worse is it is falling on high volumes. In any case, this stock moves in fits and starts. If it breaches that, its going to turn into a trading and momentum dud. Avoid

Friday, November 12, 2010

Ashu Dutts StockWatch - Week Ending November 19, 2010

NIFTY CALL FOR MONDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2010 - www.ashudutt.com

NIFTY CALL FOR MONDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2010 - THE SHORTS ARE TRAPPED. This is NOT a short market. Its one thing to be skeptical. It another to put money to short a market that is in a very strong short and long term uptrend. So what we may see no monday is a massive short squeeze. You see, the institutional guys and the guys with the pots of money know that the shorts are in no position to hold on if they turn the screw on them. And we are going to get this
I have and am convinced that we will break 6350 and once we get out of this range, the market's uptrend will be confirmed

Ashu Dutts StockWatch - Week Ending November 5, 2010

TRADING STRATEGY - NOVEMBER 12, 2010 - www.ashudutt.com

TRADING OUTLOOK - The Shanghai Index has dropped over 5%. The Indian IIP numbers were not that great. Its bound to create some fodder for the shorts. So the best thing to do for now is:
a) Avoid trading till a clear trend emerges
b) Don't try averaging in a sharply falling market
c) Close out your trades if you cannot afford to see bigger losses
d) If you have technically strong stocks, check if they are close to a support

NIFTY CALL - NOVEMBER 12, 2010 - www.ashudutt.com

NIFTY CALL - The Nifty's range is 6,000-6,200 as of now. What we need to watch is if it falls below 6,000 because then the range becomes 5400-6000. There are so many skeptics in the market that any bad news will create this kind of fall. Questions is if skeptics have enought firepower to hold their short. I don't believe they do. They are fighting institutional investors who are pumping in large money as of now and hold major chunks of most major stocks

But what we have to watch is if the Chinese market fall turns into a rout. If it does and this infects Brazil, Chile etc, then there is a serious risk that the market will not just go below 6000, it will fall rapidly and steeply. Watch ETF heavy markets. Just this fall is not enough to change course

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Ashu Dutts Gold Outlook - December 2010

Ashu Dutts Silver Outlook - Decenber 2010

NIFTY CALL - www.ashudutt.com

NIFTY CALL - Yesterday's fall came without volumes. That shows 'lack of interest" more than "selling pressure". Such trends reverse very quickly as soon as institutional investors come back.

You see, it is critical to have some conviction. These day to day falls should matter if you day trade. Otherwise, its best to decide if the short term is strong and the long term is strong. The answer is yes. Everything indicates it is strong. There is little floating stock in any major shares as of now. ETF money is strong. The disturbing thing about day to day movements is that it takes you focus away from the main trend

From time to time, there will be games. Those who know there are few institutional investors that day will batter stocks. But a day's rain does not make a rainy season

I would not consider the markets "weak" based on a low volume fall. Having said if markets stay below 6200 for 7-10 days, then the short term trend starts to reverse

BHEL - www.ashudutt.com

BHEL - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
BHEL is a "range stock". It had a range of 2200-2600. Its poised to drop below 2400 after which it heads right to 2200. The odds are it will go below 2400. Volumes have dropped significantly

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TATA CHEMICAL - www.ashudutt.com

TATA CHEMICALS - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS WEAK
Tata Chemicals is weak in the short term. If it drops below 400, it becomes weak in the long term. It is likely it will go below 400 as volumes have dopped significantly. Below 400, the next support is 360 and if it does not stop here, 330. Avoid

NIFTY CALL - www.ashudutt.com

NIFTY CALL - THERE ARE 3 THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN T THE NIFTY
a) It has a range of 6000-6300. If it crosses 6300-6350, the next levels of 6500 and 6700 etc will come easy
b) If it drops below 6000, then the range changes to 5400-6000
c)The Nifty moves back above 6300 and then it has a strong uptrend
So whatever you do, i.e. buy Nifty futures, calls etc, please make sure you have kept these ranges in mind

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EMCO - www.ashudutt.com

EMCO - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS:NONE
Emco is heading to 55. Its got no support before it. It is a technical and momentum dud. Avoid

The IPO Review - Manganese Ore IPO

The IPO Review - Hindustan Copper FPO

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

L&T - www.ashudutt.com

L&T - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
L&T has been falling lately on low volumes. What you have to watch for if you are trading in this stock is that it does not go to 2000. If it does, it could go right back to 1800. So a stop loss at 2000 is warranted
If you have the stock for the long term, it is a good solid business and will remain an institutional peferred stock (but thats for investors not traders)
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INFOSYS - www.ashudutt.com

INFOSYS-SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
Infosys may break 3000. I don't like the way it is drifting down with low volumes. If it does break 3000 (a very strong support), the next level is 2700 (and that where it stayed for most part of the year). If you are trading, then a stop loss at 3000 is warranted. For it to establish a strong uptrend, it will need to break 3200 with 3-4 times average volume and stay there for 10-15 days
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SILVER - MAY SHED 60-70% OF ITS VALUE

SILVER DOES NOT STAND A CHANCE IF GOLD STARTS TO COLLAPSE. IT MAY HEAD FROM US$26/OZ RIGHT TO US$9/OZ
http://www.ashudutt.com/Commoditiestradinglive.aspx

GOLD - THE END OF THE ROAD - www.ashudutt.com

IF GOLD TOUCHES 1320 EXPECT IT TO COLLAPSE TO 1200 AND THEN THE REAL ROUT BEGINS. IT HAS ONE STOP POINT AT 1,000 AND THEN AT 750

WHEN BIG PROP TRADERS START SAYING THAT GOLD IS GOING TO 1600-1700 AND STATEMENTS LIKE WORLD BANK CHIEF THAT GOLD SHOULD BE BROUGHT BACK IN CURRENCY STANDARDS, IT IS TIME TO SELL GOLD. IF GOLD WAS REALLY GOING UP AND HAD MORE UPSIDE, SUCH PRONOUCEMENTS WOULD SPIKE GOLD LIKE CRAZY. INSTEAD GOLD GOES NOWHERE. INFACT, GOLD COULD COLLAPSE 50%

http://www.ashudutt.com/Commoditiestradinglive.aspx

TATA MOTORS - www.ashudutt.com

TATA MOTORS - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
Both the short and long term charts are strong. This is not a day trade or a 2-3 day trade stock though. Hold if you have it
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HCC - www.ashudutt.com

HCC - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE

HCC'S charts are pathetic and that too on falling volumes. The stock is headed to 60 and if does not stop there to 55. Sometimes, when a stock has lost popular interest, you will see one or two buyers spike up the price like today. But a rainy day does not make a rainy season

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GLENMARK PHARMA - www.ashudutt.com

GLENMARK PHARMA: SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
Glenmark pharma is losing momentum in the immediate term on pathetic volumes. Never a good sign. If you have it for a few day's trade, let it go

Having said that, Glenmark pharma broke through a very critical resistance at 280 and added almost a 100 rupees. So unless it heads to 280 again, its long term trend will remain up (though looking at the volumes, the stock may have more to fall)

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GLENMARK PHARMA - www.ashudutt.com

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

ASHU DUTT'S "THE VALUE PICK" - INDOCO REMEDIES

ASHU DUTT'S "THE VALUE PICK" - INDOCO REMEDIES IS AVAILABLE AT http://www.ashudutt.com/Valuepicks.aspx

ASHU DUTT'S "THE VALUE PICK" - ROYAL ORCHID HOTELS LTD

ASHU DUTT'S "THE VALUE PICK" - ROYAL ORCHID HOTELS IS AVAILABLE AT http://www.ashudutt.com/Valuepicks.aspx

ASHU DUTT'S "THE VALUE PICK" - NMDC LTD

ASHU DUTT'S "THE VALUE PICK" - NMDC LTD IS AVAILABLE AT http://www.ashudutt.com/Valuepicks.aspx

ASHU DUTT'S "THE COTTON OUTLOOK"

ASHU DUTT'S "THE COTTON OUTLOOK" IS AVAILABLE AT http://www.ashudutt.com/comboombust.aspx

ASHU DUTT'S "THE BOOM & BUST JOURNAL" - DECEMBER 2010 EDITION

ASHU DUTT'S "THE BOOM & BUST JOURNAL" - DECEMBER 2010 EDITION IS AVAILABLE AT http://www.ashudutt.com/boomandbust.aspx

FAG BEARINGS - www.ashudutt.com

FAG BEARINGS - ASHU'S CALL: HOLD, CURRENT PRICE: 900, TARGET PRICE: 1,000, HOLDING PERIOD: 1 YEAR
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POLYPLEX CORP - http://www.ashudutt.com/portfolioreview.aspx

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POLYPLEX CORPORATION - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
Polyplex has very strong short term charts. Once it broke 200, it went straight up to 900+. I would have liked to see more volumes (they have improved but are still 80,000). Hold it if you have it. What you have to watch for is the fall in volumes

SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE - www.ashudutt.com

SREI INFRA - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG

Both the short term and long term charts are strong. Hold if you have it. I don't like it as a trading stock though since it is prone to give very volatile moves and can get day traders caught on the wrong side of the fence

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DEVELOPMENT CREDIT BANK - www.ashudutt.com

DEVELOPMENT CREDIT BANK - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
DCB has had a very strong run from 50 but it must hold at 70. If it cracks, 70, the short term trend will turn weak and it could head to 60. If it can cross 75 and hold above that level for a month, the longer term charts will indicate an uptrend
If you have it hold it with a stop loss around 65
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Monday, November 8, 2010

INDIAN OIL - www.ashudutt.com

INDIAN OIL - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
If Indian Oil breaks 400 (which it is likely to do as it is falling on high volumes), it could head to 350. The charts are not looking good for Indian Oil

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SBI - www.ashudutt.com

SBI - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
Unless SBI breaks the support of 3200, I see no break in its uptrend. If it does break 3200, then it opens up a whole gap upto 2800. However, SBI's rise is driven by the lack of floating stock and in such strong liquidity driven markets, the maximum that may happen is a day's fall. As long as there is no breach of the 3200 level and volumes remain strong, its a "buy on dips" stock
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COTTON - POSIED TO FALL BY 50% IN 12 MONTHS

COTTON – POISED TO FALL BY 50% IN 12 MONTHS
Cotton prices have reached a point where demand is bound to fall sharply in 2011. But that will coincide with bumper supplies as cotton harvesting grows significantly driven by the high price of copper. That “point of inflection” i.e sharp fall in demand and a sharp rise in supply will create a massive fall in cotton prices. And a “perverse supply curve” will take share where the lower the price of cotton, the more those hoarding cotton in inventory will rush to sell
I expect the price of cotton to collapse by 50% in 12 months
Ashu Dutt's Cotton Outlook - December 2010 Edition - See http://www.ashudutt.com/comboombust.aspx
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Ashu Dutt's The Currency Trader - December 2010 Edition - See http://www.ashudutt.com/currencytrader.aspx

It has permanently lost its place as the “safe haven currency”. And that means that we need to get used to a new rate for the rupee (and other Asian currencies). I would expect the rupee to be heading to Rs 30 to a US$ in the next 3 years. In the immediate term, the rupee will appreciate about 10% and get to Rs 40 anytime in the next 12 months. If the RBI tries to stop the appreciation of the rupee, the only way it can do that is by buying dollars and selling rupees. That would mean too many rupees chasing low quality assets in an already bubbly stock, real estate and commodity markets. I don’t believe the RBI will go that way. Its way too important for the RBI to keep inflationary pressures low than worry about an appreciating rupee
Ashu Dutt's The Currency Trader - December 2010 Edition - See http://www.ashudutt.com/currencytrader.aspx
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THE DEBASING OF THE DOLLAR - http://www.ashudutt.com/currencytrader.aspx

“THE DEBASING OF THE DOLLAR” – RS 30 to a US$?
Monetary policy was meant to provide liquidity when markets seemed to be choked for money. But the US Federal Reserve has turned it into a way to finance dud assets that don’t deserve to be bought. In other words, the US Federal Reserve is putting such high quantities of US dollars in the market that it is being used to finance duds. When you do that i.e. print more and more money, eventually, you “debase” a currency. And that’s where the US dollar is headed.
Ashu Dutt's The Currency Trader - December 2010 Edition - See http://www.ashudutt.com/currencytrader.aspx
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THE DEBASING OF THE DOLLAR - http://www.ashudutt.com/currencytrader.aspx

NIFTY AT 7,000 OR 8,000 - http://www.ashudutt.com/boomandbust.aspx

NIFTY AT 7000/8000?
Speculative flows are “blind” money will take the Nifty to 7,000 or maybe 8,000. The rise will be swift and vertical. We could get there by February or March 2011. Unbelievable! Maybe. Possible? Absolutely
With low floating stock, most available stock in top tier companies already in institutional portfolios, a potent combination of low float, large amounts of cash (and more coming in every day) is building up which seems ripe to take the market in a vertical fashion
Ashu Dutt's The Boom & Bust Journal - December 2010 Edition - See http://www.ashudutt.com/boomandbust.aspx
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HINDUSTAN OIL EXPLORATION - www.ashudutt.com

TRADING CALLS
HINDUSTAN OIL EXPLORATION - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
HOEC seems to be making a very strong short term move on 3-4 times average 3 month volume. If it gets to 300 which is likely, it will head to 350 and around 370, it would have no resistance on the upside. Hold if you have it

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SHREE RENUKA SUGAR - www.ashudutt.com

TRADING CALLS
SHREE RENUKA SUGARS - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
Shree Renuka is gathering momentum and the rise is becoming veritical i.e the speed at which the price and volume is going up is accelerating. That makes it a day trade, swing trade and perhaps a long term trade
The stock has a very strong support at 80. And from that point it has had volumes running up 3-4 times its 3 month average and the speed of the rise has been strong. Hold if you have it. Looks ok to trade

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RCF - www.ashudutt.com

TRADING CALLS
RCF - SHORT TERM: STRONG,LONG TERM STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
RCF is going through "warehousing" i.e. the buy orders are very large (and they come in one or 2 waves a day) and the sellers are smaller lot holders. When a stock moves into this kind of buy/sell imbalance, it can head much much higher. The stock has other things going for it. It has broken through all resistances including the last resistance at around 115 and that too on volumes of 7 times 3 month average volumes
Good for a day trade, swing trade, long term trade. Hold if you have it. There is more to come

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CANARA BANK - www.ashudutt.com

TRADING CALLS
CANARA BANK - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
Canara Bank has very strong day charts, short term/swing/position trading charts and long term charts. Volumes are a strong 3 times 3 month average. And to top it all, there is hardly any floating stock
Rarely do you get such a potent combination. The stock is on a roll. Hold if you have it. Fine to trade. There is no resistance at these levels. A stop loss around Rs 40 away from the curren price is fine
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Friday, November 5, 2010

ASHU DUTT "THE MULTIBAGGER" - http://www.ashudutt.com/Multibagger.aspx

The Multibaggers that I identify for Institutional Investors are posted at this link (not all though) - http://www.ashudutt.com/Multibagger.aspx
Please visit this link to see the Multibaggers that I add from time to time

ASHU DUTT'S "THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR" - http://www.ashudutt.com/institutionalinvestor.aspx

ASHU DUTT "THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR" - I write these monthly for Institutional Investors. They may assist you in understanding the kind of moves that happened yesterday

http://www.ashudutt.com/institutionalinvestor.aspx

SHREE GANESH JEWELRY - www.ashudutt.com

SHREE GANESH JEWELRY - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: NONE, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE

The short term charts are turning vertical. The rise is getting even faster every day. But there is not enough chart data to show if this will continue for the long term. Hold if you have it

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GEETANJALI GEMS - www.ashudutt.com

GEETANJALI GEMS - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG

Geetanjali Gems is going from strength to strength. Its long term charts are good but its short term charts are getting more and more vertical i.e. price rise is coming faster in the short term on 3-4 times average 3 month volume. Hold if you have it. Buying for a trade is also fine with a stop loss at 300. What you need to watch for is a drying up of volumes

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Thursday, November 4, 2010

HINDALCO - wwwa.ashudutt.com

HINDALCO - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG

Hindalco may provide a good short term trade as long as dollar continues to fall and global commodities get a leg up. Short and long term charts are strong

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AUROBINDO PHARMA - www.ashudutt.com

AUROBINDO PHARMA - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG

Aurobindo Pharma has very strong long term trends since 800 and short term trends since 1000. Hold if you have it. Ok to trade with a Stop Loss above 1200

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SOUTH INDIAN BANK - www.ashudutt.com

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Warm Regards,

Ashu Dutt

ashu@ashudutt.com

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Warm Regards,

Ashu Dutt

ashu@ashudutt.com

PTC - www.ashudutt.com

PTC - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG

PTC has strong short term charts and its support is at 120. It could head anywhere since there is no resistance. I would have liked to see higher volumes but in this case lower volumes could be a sign of unavailability of floating stock. Hold if you have it. Ok to trade with a Stop Loss of 120

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BALKRISHNA INDUSTRIES - www.ashudutt.com

BALKRISHANA INDUSTRIES - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM:WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS:NONE

This is not a trading stock. With such low volumes, it could reverse course anytime. Balkrishna Industries is weak because its volumes are non existant. If we start getting volumes that are around 300,000-500,000 a day, I would have said the charts are strong

If you have it, hold it since the price trend is up. If you plan to buy it for a trade, avoid

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HAPPY DIWALI

HERE'S WISHING YOU AND YOUR FAMILY A VERY HAPPY DIWALI. MAY IT BRING MORE MONEY THAT YOU DESIRE AND ABOVE ALL GREAT HAPPINESS

WARM REGARDS

ASHU DUTT

SUJANA TOWERS - www.ashudutt.com

SUJANA TOWERS - SHORT TERM: VERY STRONG, LONG TERM: UNKNOWN, PREVIALING BIAS: STRONG

Sujana Towers have a very strong short term uptrend. It spent the entire year around 60 and then had this breakout. Such sharp moves on sharp volumes create trading as long as volumes and price are rising. The sign to get out is when the volumes drop. Hold if you have it. Ok to trade. But watch for a drop in volumes to exit

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SUJANA TOWERS - www.ashudutt.com

IDBI BANK - www.ashudutt.com

IDBI BANK - SHORT TERM: VERY STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVIALING BIAS: VERY STRONG

IDBI's short term charts are very strong and could take it over 200. Infact, it could head anywhere now that it has no resistance. The rise is vertical since 120. Long term charts are also strong. Hold if you have it. Ok for a short term trade too

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INDIABULLS REAL ESTATE - www.ashudutt.com

INDIABULLS REAL ESTATE - I have already picked it as a Multibagger. Please see this link - http://www.ashudutt.com/Multibagger.aspx

LIC HOUSING FINANCE - www.ashudutt.com

LIC HOUSING FINANCE - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG

"Saved by the bell". LIC Housing finance was heading into a downward tailspin. Had it hit 1300, it would have collapsed to 1200. It got rescued but it is not out of the woods. Volumes are still 1/2 of average 3 month volume (not a good sign). It will have to cross 1400 on 3-4 times average 3 month volume and stay there for 7-10 trading sessions to make a shor term uptrendIf you have it, hold it with a stop loss above 1300. Not a good stock for a short term trade as of now

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BASF - www.ashudutt.com

BASF - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE

BASF is losing its price and volume momentum in the short term. The long term charts remain strong though. There is no risk of a collapse till around 600. So if you have the stock keep a stop loss at a little above 600. If it falls below 600, its next support is at 500. Avoid for a day trade or a very shor term trade and wait for volumes to build up

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BAJAJ HOLDING & INVESTMENT - www.ashudutt.com

BAJAJ HOLDINGS & INVESTMENTS: SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE

Both the short and long term charts are strong. The volumes though are weak. If you have it hold it. If you plan to buy as a trading buy, I would wait to see some serious volume buildup

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TATA STEEL F&O - http://www.ashudutt.com/fandotradinglive.aspx

TATA STEEL: NOVEMBER FUTURES OR NOVEMBER 640 CALL

Tata Steel seems headed for 650. A 640 Call may work but a November future may be better

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NIFTY - www.ashudutt.com

NIFTY - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG

Nifty today rose no 3 big buying sprees. Such buying sprees have been lead by the US Fed's US$600 billion printing money (another word for buying "bonds" in the open market). So this was enough to make the world markets jump and dance. Having said that, while the short term is fine, don't expect today's moves to continue on a day to day basis. 6200 will have to hold on the Nifty for 7-10 trading sessions before the trend is established

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Wednesday, November 3, 2010

ADANI POWER - www.ashudutt.com

ADANI POWER – SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG

I would like to see Adani Power hold above 140 (its support) for atleast 10-15 trading sessions. Once that happens, it will become a swing trading call (5-10 day trade). It is already in a long term uptrend. The only thing that concerned me were the wild swings it has demonstrated in the past 1 month and its inability to hold 140 through the month

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ADANI POWER - www.ashudutt.com

ADANI POWER – SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG

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DISH TV - www.ashudutt.com

DISH TV - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVIALING BIAS: STRONG
Dish TV needs to hold above 60 for about 7-10 trading sessions at 2-3 times average 3 month volumes to confirm a short term move. So its better to avoid a short term trade as of now since the volume confirmation has not come. Having said that, Dish TV is in a long term trend in terms of price. Hold if you have it. If you plan to buy, it will need more than a day's move above 60 to make it a confirmed short term uptrend

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NATIONAL FERTILIZERS - www.ashudutt.com

NATIONAL FERTILIZERS - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
National Fertilizers has broken away from a 100-120 range in which it was for months. Short term trend is very strong with volumes at 80 times average 3 month volume. Once it breaks 140, the long term trend will turn equally strong. If you have it, hold it. If you plan to buy it as a trading call, perhaps a stop loss at 130 should be put
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NIFTY - www.ashudutt.com

NIFTY: SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
The Nifty looks poised to break 6200. Short term charts are strong. A long term uptrend will be firmly established if we can break 6200 and stay above that for 2-3 weeks. The next level could be 6350 and then 6500 and perhaps 6700

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GOLD - http://www.ashudutt.com/Commoditiestradinglive.aspx

GOLD - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: VERY STRONG
Gold may be losing its short term momentum. It may head from Us$1,336/oz to US$1200 in the short term. US$1200 is its only support as of now

http://www.ashudutt.com/Commoditiestradinglive.aspx

ORIENTAL BANK - www.ashudutt.com

ORIENTAL BANK - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
Oriental bank has excellent charts both short term and long term. Volumes are also double of 3 month average. It is a "buy on dips" stock for the short term. If you have it, hold it

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FIRST LEASING - www.ashudutt.com

FIRST LEASING - SHORT TERM:STRONG, LONG TERM:STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
The stock has a tendency to rise in spurts and then settle at a particular price. The short and long term trends are strong though the immediate term trend is weak. If you have it, hold it with a Stop loss around 75 as the stock has a very strong support at 70.If it does not hold, it could go right to 50. The odds though are that it will settle at a higher level and stay there for a couple of months

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TITAGARH WAGONS - www.ashudutt.com

TITAGARH WAGONS - SHORT TERM:STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
Charts looks strong both for the short and long term. In order to establish a definitive uptrend, I would like to see volumes shoot up to 3-4 times average 3 month volumes

If you have it hold it. The price trend is up and there is no resistance level beyond 475 as of now

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TITAGARH WAGONS - www.ashudutt.com

SASKEN - www.ashudutt.com

SASKEN: SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
The stock is heading down. Its broken a very strong resistance at 200. Its next support is 170 which I think it will break. The next support is way down at aroun 140. Volumes are dropping too. Long term, the stock has been stuck in the 200 level for many months

Avoid. If you have it as a trade, let it go

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SUBEX - www.ashudutt.com

SUBEX - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
Short term charts are strong. If the stock crosses 80, it may head to 100. Beyond that point the long term charts turn strong

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DR REDDY'S - www.ashudutt.com

DR REDDY - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
Dr Reddy's short term charts are very strong. Its been on a vertical rise and could much higher. The long term charts are very strong. There is no resistance to this stock as of now (and will not be there till it stocks for a couple of days at some price). Supports are way down at 1400. Hold it if you have it. Fine for a short term trade
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RANBAXY - www.ashudutt.com

RANBAXY - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
Ranbaxy's immediate term (10-15 days) and Short term charts are very strong. With a low public float, any big lot purchase by institutional investors could drive the stock much higher. The long term charts are also strong and volumes are holding up
Hold if you have it. Its fine for a short term trade too with a stop loss at around 550
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CROMPTION GREAVES - www.ashudutt.com

CROMPTON GREAVES - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
Both the short and long term trends are strong. If you have the stock, hold it. If you plan to trade, a 10-15 day trade will work. A Stop Loss at 300 is best just in case though the odds that this stock is heading higher is more
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VENKYS - www.ashudutt.com

VENKYS - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: WEAK
The stock could be headed to 700. It has lost its short term momentum and volumes are down to a trickle. With no interest in the stock, its drift down is very likely. The long term trend looks fine. What one has to watch in the stock is a volume increase of 20-30 times its 3 month average volumes. If that happens and the stock moves to 950-970 on high volumes it may have its short term trend back
As of now Avoid. If you have it, let it go. A downtrend is likely

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Tuesday, November 2, 2010

SURAJ DIAMONDS - www.ashudutt.com

SURAJ DIAMONDS - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM:STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: WEAK

I would not trade on this stock. Even though the long term trend is strong, its trading behaviour is very erratic which is that it does not give a clear trend on a day to day basis. Avoid. If you have it and can hold for a couple of months,the uptrend seems intact

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BAJAJ HINDUSTAN - www.ashudutt.com

BAJAJ HINDUSTAN - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
The stock has been falling on low volumes. If it cannot hold 120, it could see 115 levels. For a short term uptrend, it will need to cross 135 and for a long term trend 150 on strong volumes
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DISHMAN PHARMA - www.ashudutt.com

DISHMAN PHARMA - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
The stock has lost its trading momentum. I don't see a support till 100-110. For a short term uptrend to emerge, the stock will need to move above 200 and stay there for 7-14 trading sessions. It has no long term trend till it crosses 220. Avoid. If you have it as a trading play, let it go
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TELEVISION EIGHTEEN - www.ashudutt.com

TELEVISION EIGHTEEN - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVIALING BIAS: NONE
The stock is falling on very low volumes indicating loss of trading interest. It could drift all the way to 75 which is its support. For it to make a short term uptrend, it will need to break 95 on 5-10 times 3 month average volumes. The odds though are that it will drift towards 75. This is a 'range trade' stock and usually works between 75-95
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RCF - www.ashudutt.com

RCF - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVIALING BIAS: STRONGIf RCF breaks 110, it has a clear short term trend. The trend is backed by volumes. The longer term trend will require the stock to stay above 110 for about a month. The stock has spend over 6 months in the 80 level. If you have it, hold it. If you plan to buy it, wait for it to cross 110 at 3-4 times average 3 month volumes

GREAT EASTERN SHIPPING - www.ashudutt.com

GREAT EASTERN SHIPPING: SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: SHORT, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
The immediate term trend is very strong. The short term trend is strong. The long term trend while being strong is subject to wide swings though there is a breakout of any range this stock was stuck in. Hold if you have it. If you plan to trade it, this stock is not for the weak hearted as it may give very large swings in the plus/minus 10% range in a short period of time
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GREAT EASTERN SHIPPING - www.ashudutt.com

NIFTY - www.ashudutt.com

NIFTY - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: WEAK
The Nifty has to break the 6000-6200 range. The odds are it will break 6200. Beyond 6200, most resistances are weak or non existant

INOX LEISURE - www.ashudutt.com

INOX LEISURE - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
Inox has lost its momentum. Its next support is 70. So if you have it, keep a stop loss there. After 70, it is headed to 65. Inox rose on the Fame sale euphoria on multiplexes. Thats over and so is this stock's trading story. Avoid. If you have it as a trading stock, there are better trading plays to look at

POLARIS SOFTWARE - www.ashudutt.com

POLARIS SOFTWARE - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
The stock is heading to 140. It have very weak short term and long term charts. Volumes have collapsed. A technical and momentum dud. Avoid. Let it go if you have it as a trading stock

ORBIT CORP - www.ashudutt.com

ORBIT CORP - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: WEAK
The stock has broken a strong support at 120. The short term is very weak. I would exit the stock if this is a trade. To show an uptrend it must move over 130 with 2-3 times 3 month average volumes and break 140 for a long term uptrend

EDUCOMP - www.ashudutt.com

EDUCOMP - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
Educomp has broken 550 and may be headed to 450. Short term charts are very weak and long term charts are weak. The volumes remain weak. The only time an uptrend may get established is if it can cross 600-610 with 3-4 times 3 month average volumes
Avoid as a trading play. If you have it, its better to switch to another stock with price and volume momentum

MARUTI - www.ashudutt.com

MARUTI UDYOG - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
If Maruti breaks 1500, it could head straight to 1600. It has had a straight run from 1200. Thats great for an intermediate trend. The long term trend will get strong once it crosses 1600. The floating stock in Maruti is just 8%. 54% is with Promoters and 38% with institutional investors. If you have it hold it. Should be ok for a short term trade till 1600 and perhaps even a longer term trade beyond that
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BHARTI SHIPYARD - www.ashudutt.com

BHARTI SHIPYARD - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
Bharti reversed course after falling from 300 to 200 and has been in a short term uptrend (though not a smooth uptrend). Having said that, it is likely to move towards 300. If it breaks 300, the long term uptrend turns strong. The current move is coming on double the 3 month average volume. If you have it, hold it. You could look at a trade but with a stop loss at 250

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SUN PHARMA - www.ashudutt.com

SUN PHARMA - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
Both the short term and long term charts are strong. The stock has no resistance at the moment. And it has risen straight from 1700. Also the floating stock is just 10%. Promoters hold 63% and Institutions hold 17%. The stock could head up strongly from this point. Hold it if you have it. Fine for a trade too with a stop loss at around 2000

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PRECOT - www.ashudutt.com

PRECOT - SHORT TERM: WEAK, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
Precot is not a trading stock. It has a good long term chart. But it has no volume. A stock without volume is like a 20 storey tower standing on wooden stilts. They may stand for 1 day, 1 year (but we don't know when they collapse). Short term, it looks like it is heading to 240

Such stocks suddenly develop volume which lasts a few days. Once that happens i.e. volumes of 50 times its current 3 month average, we can give this a look

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CHL LTD - www.ashudutt.com

CHL LTD - SHORT TERM:WEAK, LONG TERM: WEAK, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
A stock that trades a few thousand shares is NOT A TRADING STOCK. CHL Ltd has weak charts in any case and to top it all, it has no volumes. Unless there is price moves on very strong volumes, I have no view on it. Its best you avoid on trades on such stocks
If you have a question on this stock as a Value Pick, please post at http://www.ashudutt.com/valuepickslive.aspx

SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE - www.ashudutt.com

SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVIALING BIAS: STRONG
SREI's short and long term charts are strong and getting stronger. Its short term charts show an even faster price momentum than the longer term charts. I can't see any resistance at these levels so it can head anywhere. The Stop loss has to be atleast 5% away since the stock's not made any serious drop lately. If you have the stock, hold it. If you are looking at a trade, looks fine

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES - www.ashudutt.com

RELIANCE I have already commented on this stock. Please see this link
http://www.ashudutt.com/stockupdate.aspx?StockUpdate=RHDFH45746HDGHDGH
For checking my Trading calls on other stocks, please check
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MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA - www.ashudutt.com

http://www.ashudutt.com/stockupdate.aspx

Monday, November 1, 2010

NESTLE - www.ashudutt.com

NESTLE - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: NONE
Nestle has excellent short and long term charts but without volumes. So it has 2 ingredients i.e. Price and Time momentum but not volume momentum. But that may be because it is held for the long term and sees little trading activity. If you have it, hold it. It will be subject to large spikes(both up and down) should there be a large buy or sell order. Don't suggest as a trading stock

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VALUE PICK - M&M

VALUE PICK
MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA - ASHU'S CALL: BUY, CURRENCT PRICE: 760, TARGET PRICE: 100, HOLDING PERIOD: 12 MONTHS

For other Ashu Dutt Value Picks, please see http://www.ashudutt.com/valuepicksearch.aspx

M&M - www.ashudutt.com

MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG

Both long term and short term charts are very strong. The stock could be headed to 900. If you have it hold it. Volume momentum is equally strong

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HERO HONDA - http://www.ashudutt.com/valuepickslive.aspx

VALUE PICK
HERO HONDA-ASHU'S CALL:BUY, CURRENT PRICE: 1840, TARGET PRICE: 2400, HOLDING PERIOD: 12 MONTHS

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TITAN INDUSTRIES - www.ashudutt.com

TITAN INDUSTRIES - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS: STRONG
Titan has strong charts for the immediate term (3-5 trading sessions), short term and the long term. Volumes are running 6 times the 3 month average supporting the price rise. Stock has strong supports at 3600. If you have it hold it. If you are looking at a trading buy, a Stop loss around 3600 should be used

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ING VYSYA - www.ashudutt.com

ING VYSYA - SHORT TERM: STRONG, LONG TERM: STRONG, PREVAILING BIAS STRONG
Both the Short term and long term look very strong. The volumes are low because the floating stock is low but in this case, a low floating stock helps the stock move up. Any order of even 100,000 to buy this stock will great big upticks

If you have it hold it. Looks fine for a short trade too with a Stop loss of lets say 10% from the purchase price (given its low liquidity, a stop loss that far may be required)

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