ASHU DUTT'S 'THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE REVIEW' JUNE 2009 EDITION - FROM www.ashudutt.com

Ashu Dutt’s THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE REVIEWDecision Tool for Forex Traders
Edition: XXVIIJune, 2009Price: US$500 for 12 Editions
BOTTOMLINE
- Short Term Trend (7-30 days) – Bullish. The Odds areo +2% gain: 20%o +1 % gain: 60%o -1 % loss: 20%- Intermediate Trend (30-90 days) – Bullisho +3% gain: 40%o +2% gain: 40%o – 2% loss 20%- Long Term Trend (90 days +) – Bullisho +6% gain: 40%o +4%gain: 40%o -4% loss: 20%
STRATEGY
- Short on the rupee if crude goes to around US$ 100 in the immediate term. But the chances of a fall in rupee even under these circumstances is low- Long on Rupee futures. We could see a Rs 44-45 rupee (against the dollar) range in a 180 day horizon. While we may see some dips in the rupee, its overall direction is up and could see a Rs 40-41 range anywhere from 12 to 18 months. Staying long on the rupee makes sense.
KEY DRIVERS
- Strong inflows in primary and secondary markets combined with increased FDI flows- NRIs usually try to ride the wave with increased rupee investments- Investors with existing portfolios are ripe to make 10% gains from currency appreciation are not likely to sell- In the immediate term though, the rupee is subject to continuing fall in exports and a spike in the import bill due to crude prices (India’s import bill has over 40% in oil imports)ABOUT Ashu Dutt’s “THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE REVIEW”The Foreign Exchange Review l is meant for institutional investors, corporates, foreign exchange dealers who need to hedge/trade currencies. It specifically addresses the movement of Asian currencies against the US dollar and Euro
The key answer that everyone is searching is the direction of the currency. And that’s what this journal addresses. It may look at fundamentals, technicals, psychology or anything else that is relevant to make the call on the short, intermediate and long term direction of Asian currencies