Ashu Dutt’s 'THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE REVIEW' - July 2009 Edition from www.ashudutt.com

You can access all Research Reports on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, Real Estate at http://www.ashudutt.com/

Ashu Dutt’s THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE REVIEW

Decision Tool for Forex Traders

Edition: XXVIII

July, 2009

Price: US$500 for 12 Editions

BOTTOMLINE

- Short Term Trend (7-30 days) – Bearish. The Odds are

o -2% loss: 50%

o -1 %loss: 30%

o +1 % gain: 20%

- Intermediate Trend (30-90 days) – Bearish

o -3% loss: 50%

o -2% loss: 40%

o – 1% loss 10%

- Long Term Trend (90 days +) – Bearish

o -4% loss: 20%

o -3%loss: 40%

o -2% loss: 40%

STRATEGY

- The rupee may head to Rs 49 – Rs 49.50 levels in the short term

- A level of around Rs 50-Rs 51 is likely in the intermediate term

- The long term trend remains bearish with a likely depreciation to around Rs 52

KEY DRIVERS

- I expect the markets to shed around 20% in the next 3-4 months. This is the premise of the fall in the rupee

- FDI inflows are not going to balance this out (at least not in the intermediate term)

- A strengthening of the dollar is very likely as the US recovers

- We may see in imports at a faster rate than exports as oil prices rise to US$ 75-80 (a very likely scenario in the next 3-4 months)

ABOUT Ashu Dutt’s “THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE REVIEW”

The Foreign Exchange Review l is meant for institutional investors, corporates, foreign exchange dealers who need to hedge/trade currencies. It specifically addresses the movement of Asian currencies against the US dollar and Euro

The key answer that everyone is searching is the direction of the currency. And that’s what this journal addresses. It may look at fundamentals, technicals, psychology or anything else that is relevant to make the call on the short, intermediate and long term direction of Asian currencies